A prep list is where a sales forecast becomes work. Treating orders as portions, counting stock without checking that it can be used, or guessing batch yields can leave a kitchen short or producing more than it needs.
This guide shows how to turn forecast orders into a component prep plan with a stated buffer, approved usable stock, validated batch yields, a time check, an owner and an after-service review. It does not cover recipe costing or stock-count mechanics. Every figure is an original illustration, not a norm.
Fix units, versions and components first
Plan each component in one stable unit, usually ready-to-serve portions of a named recipe version. Do not mix raw purchase kilograms with finished portions in the same calculation. If a component is shared across several menu items, add their demand together and plan it once. Account for any difference in portion size between channels, such as dine-in and delivery.
Forecast orders are not portions. Define how many portions of the component each order is expected to need, either as portions per order or as the share of orders that include the item. In the example below, a qualifying order takes one portion.
Only approved usable stock can offset demand
A stock count tells you what is on the shelf, not what you may serve. Only stock already approved as usable under the site's food controls, and valid for the intended service, can reduce the amount to prepare. Decisions about reuse, shelf life, holding or disposal sit outside this worksheet and follow the site's own process.
Worked example: from orders to batches
In this fictional plan, a service is forecast at 120 completed orders. On average 0.35 portions of one component are expected per order, because about 35% of orders include one portion. That gives 42 expected portions. The team chooses a buffer of 4 portions; this is a local illustration, not a recommended size. Already approved usable stock is 8 portions.
New portions needed are the larger of zero and 42 plus 4 less 8, which is 38. The validated full batch yields 20 portions, so 38 divided by 20, rounded up, is 2 batches, producing 40 portions. Projected stock after the forecast demand is 8 plus 40 less 42, which is 6: the 4-portion buffer plus 2 portions of rounding surplus.
This is a forecast plan, not a guarantee of demand. The projected 6 portions are not permission to hold food for another service. Whether anything left over can be used is decided separately under the site's controls.
| Step (illustrative) | Value |
|---|---|
| Forecast completed orders | 120 |
| Expected portions per order | 0.35 |
| Expected portions | 42 |
| Chosen buffer | 4 |
| Approved usable stock | 8 |
| New portions needed | max(0, 42 + 4 - 8) = 38 |
| Validated full batch yield | 20 |
| Batches (rounded up) | 2, producing 40 |
| Projected stock after demand | 8 + 40 - 42 = 6 |
Rules that keep the arithmetic honest
If approved stock already covers demand plus buffer, the answer is zero new batches; production is never negative. If the batch yield is missing or zero, leave the result blank and flag it.
Expected portions per order can be fractional, and for some formats it can be more than one. Counts of orders, usable portions and buffer are whole numbers in a whole-portion plan. If expected portions come out fractional, round them up at that stage and label that as a planning policy rather than the mathematical average. In the example, 42 is already whole, so it is unchanged.
The planner assumes only whole validated batches. A smaller batch is a different recipe yield and must be tested and authorised separately. Scaling a recipe down in proportion does not by itself solve quality or equipment differences.
Check the time it takes
In a separate illustration, each batch of this component has been tested at 30 minutes, with a one-off set-up of 10 minutes. The two batches need 70 minutes in total. The available window is 60 minutes, used sequentially with no overlap, so the plan needs 10 minutes more than the window allows.
This is not the full lead time. Cooling, holding, dispatch and other required controls sit outside this figure and must be planned separately, so do not treat a plan that fits the window as ready. When a plan does not fit, revisit the sequence, an authorised batch size or the resource plan. Do not skip steps or produce earlier without the controls in place.
| Time check (illustrative) | Minutes |
|---|---|
| Batches x tested time | 2 x 30 = 60 |
| One-off set-up | 10 |
| Total needed | 70 |
| Available sequential window | 60 |
| Above available | 10 |
Record it and review after service
Each plan needs the forecast date and version, the recipe version and units, the buffer and the reason for it, the data source and evidence, the owner and the due time. After service, record what was actually produced and used, what was wasted, and the variance from plan.
Choose the follow-up date when you make the plan, so forecasts improve and recurring rounding surplus, such as the 2 extra portions here, stays visible rather than becoming a habit.
Scaling recipes properly
Recipe standardisation guidance for school nutrition programmes describes adjusting accepted, tested recipes by a factor: divide the desired yield by the current yield, then multiply each ingredient by that factor. It also advises testing the adjusted recipe at the larger quantity and training staff to use it. That is the reason this plan relies on validated batch yields. The guidance is used here for general recipe planning only, not for US school programme requirements or food control rules.
Put it into practice
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From reading to doing
Forecast-to-batch prep planner
The Prep Plan worksheet has a demand-to-batch section taking forecast orders, expected portions per order, buffer, approved usable stock and validated batch yield, and returning new portions needed, whole batches, portions produced and projected stock. A separate time check compares batch time and set-up with the available window. Further sections record forecast version, recipe, units, buffer reason, owner and due, plus actual produced, used, waste and variance for review.
Open the Prep Plan tab in the launch workbook. Keep a copy for your own business.
Download the free workbook See what’s inside the toolkit →Sources & further reading
- USDA Recipe Standardization Guide for School Nutrition Programs (Institute of Child Nutrition with USDA FNS) ↗
2022 edition, copyright 21 June 2022, hosted by the Nebraska Department of Education, retrieved 7 November 2026. Used for the general factor method of adjusting tested recipes. US programme requirements are not applied; all figures here are original.
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